Vulnerability for Nioro

Sensitivity of current agricultural production systems to climate change:

• Peanut, as it is cultivated today, is not vulnerable to climate change and would almost always benefit from it
• Maize, as it is cultivated today, is highly vulnerable to climate change and would severely suffer from it
• Millet, as it is cultivated today, is moderately vulnerable to climate change and could either slightly benefit or suffer from it

Impact of climate change on future agricultural production systems:

• Peanut still almost always benefits from climate change
• Within these systems and under higher input levels, maize continues to suffer from climate change
• Meanwhile, millet remains relatively unaffected by climate change and could either slightly benefit or suffer from it
   

 

Adaptations for Nioro

Benefits of interventions on current agricultural systems:

At least 3 smallholder households out of 4 are potential adopters of a basic increased fertilizer package. At most 1 in 10 would adopt a compound fertilizer + improved variety package

Doubling fertilizer input today with adjusted plant density will double cereal yields, and may triple maize yields

Increasing smallholder use of fertilizers is today more important than improved varieties

Benefits of climate change adaptations:

A longer crop life cycle is a sufficient adaptation to eliminate negative impacts of climate change on maize and millet, which then always exhibit yield increases compared to today

Contrastingly, a longer crop life cycle in peanut depresses yields systematically and cannot be recommended as a valid adaptation