What is AgMIP?

The Agricultural Model intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is an international collaborative effort to improve agricultural modelling and to understand climate impacts on the agricultural sector at global, national, and regional scales.  More information on AgMIP findings, products, and activities is available at www.agmip.org.  This AgMIP Impacts Explorer was created with support from the UK Department for International Development.

 

Why AgMIP?

Agricultural risks are growing. Decision-makers need probabilistic risk analysis to identify and prioritize effective adaptation and mitigation strategies.

Consistency is key. AgMIP is establishing research standards so future studies no longer use different assumptions across regions and models. 

Ongoing solutions. AgMIP is developing a rigorous process to evaluate agricultural models, which results in continuous model improvement.

 

What is the goal of AgMIP regional research?

Regional farming systems face uncertain futures and policy-makers need actionable information in order to ensure futrue food security. AgMIP Regional Research Teams combine model simulations with expert knowledge to assess the vulnerability of these complex systems and test adaptations to improve farmers' livelihoods.

 

The 4 AgMIP Core Research Questions

Q1: What is the sensitivity of current agricultural production systems to climate change?  This question addresses the isolated impacts of climate changes assuming that the production system does not change from its current state.

Q2: What are the benefits of adaptation in current agricultural systems? This question addresses the benefit (e.g., economic and food security resilience) of potential adaptation options to current agricultural systems given current climate

Q3: What is the impact of climate change on future agricultural production systems?  Assessment of climate impacts on the future production system, which will differ from the current production system due to development in the agricultural sector

Q4: What are the benefits of climate change adaptations? Assessment of the benefits of potential adaptation options in the future production system

Figure: Overview of core climate impact questions and the production system states simulated in the AgMIP regional integrated assessments. Impact indicators may include crop and livestock yields, value of production, poverty, or net farm or household income.  The current climate and production system is represented by the blue dot, while the future production of the system is represented in three ways: assuming that there is no climate change (black), assuming that there is climate change and no adaptation (red), and assuming that there is climate change and adaptation (green).  The dashed line represents the evolution of the production system from its current state (S1) in response to development in the agricultural sector that is not directly motivated by climate change (arriving at S2).  To understand the sensitivity of the current production system to anticipated changes, production in the current period is also estimated responding to an instantaneous climate change (orange) or using proposed adaptation strategies under present climate (pink).  Six combinations of simulations, each represented by a colored dot, are needed to address the four core questions.

 

Please visit the AgMIP website for more information about AgMIP, or download the AgMIP Regional Integrated Assessment Protocols as a pdf.